New Castle
Boys - Girls
2019 - 2020 - 2021
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State Rank #147
Shelbyville Semi-State Rank #40
Rushville Regional Rank #8
Connersville Sectional Rank #8
Most Likely Finish 7th place at Regionals
State Champion 0.0%
Top 5 at State Finals 0.0%
Top 10 at State Finals 0.0%
Advance to State Finals 0.0%
Advance to Semi-State 0.0%
Advance to Regional 100.0%



All times are adjusted ratings, which are calculated based on time relative to other runners in race.
Team Adjusted Rating is the team rating with runners missing from that race added back in.
Cells with NEI means there was not enough info to calculate adjusted ranking for that race.




Season Rating Arabian Roundup Hagerstown Invitational Marion Invitational Randolph Southern Invitational New Castle Invitational Jim Leffler Invite Golden Bear Invitational Hoosier Heritage Conference Connersville Sectional Rushville Regional Shelbyville Semi-State
Date 8/26 8/29 9/5 9/12 9/15 9/19 9/26 10/3 10/10 10/17 10/24
Team Rating 1,116 1,196 1,275 1,071 1,132 1,298 1,279
Team Adjusted Rating 869 933 918 969 991 1,015
State RankRunnerSeason Rating Arabian Roundup Hagerstown Invitational Marion Invitational Randolph Southern Invitational New Castle Invitational Jim Leffler Invite Golden Bear Invitational Hoosier Heritage Conference Connersville Sectional Rushville Regional Shelbyville Semi-State
305  Sydney Mathews 9 20:42 20:18 NEI 21:02 20:18 21:29 20:28 20:41 20:23 21:22 20:35 21:00
465  Lydia Harvey 10 21:13 22:20 21:27 20:50 21:47 21:15 20:33 21:56 21:08 20:58
1,150  Ella Garvin 10 22:54
Savannah Kernel 10 24:05 23:15 24:02 24:30
Lily Farmer 9 27:05 27:34 NEI 26:33 26:38 27:42 26:53 27:15 27:33 27:01 26:39
Jamie Kernel 11 27:21 28:24 27:08 27:14
Lauren Watterson 9 28:30 30:55 NEI 30:07 29:33 29:31 29:06 28:32 29:28 28:01
Audra McClure 12 31:39 33:37 31:00 30:21 33:32 32:28 30:49 30:57 32:11




IHSAA Tournament Simulation



Based on results of 10,000 simulations of the IHSAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.





Team Results

Advances to RoundAvg FinishAvg Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
State Finals 0.0%
Semi-State 0.0%
Regionals 100% 7.0 203 99.9 0.1
Sectionals 100% 3.0 112 26.5 52.1 20.0 1.3



Individual Results



Indv No Team: Chance of running in round if team did not advance.
Indv: Chance of being in position to advance to round regardless of whether the team made it.




Semi-StateAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Sydney Mathews 99.9% 92.9 99.9% 99.9%
Lydia Harvey 89.1% 121.8 89.1% 89.1%


RegionalsAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Sydney Mathews 100% 13.8 0.0 0.4 0.9 1.9 4.5 6.5 7.5 8.5 10.8 11.8 11.4 10.9 8.3 6.2 3.9 2.6 1.6 0.8 0.5 0.5 0.2 100.0%
Lydia Harvey 100% 21.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.8 1.2 2.5 3.7 5.2 7.9 9.7 9.3 9.2 7.8 6.9 6.2 5.7 100.0%
Ella Garvin 100% 53.9 100.0%


SectionalsAvg Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Sydney Mathews 2.0 18.9 30.8 27.6 19.6 2.6 0.4 0.1 0.0
Lydia Harvey 4.6 0.3 1.2 5.4 17.2 46.9 17.3 7.8 2.9 1.0 0.0
Ella Garvin 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 2.1 4.3 6.6 9.1 11.0 14.1 15.5 18.5 14.6 2.9 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0